A new method for estimating growth and fertility rates using age-at-death ratios in small skeletal samples: The effect of mortality and stochastic variation

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F49777513%3A23330%2F23%3A43968908" target="_blank" >RIV/49777513:23330/23:43968908 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0286580" target="_blank" >https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0286580</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0286580" target="_blank" >10.1371/journal.pone.0286580</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
A new method for estimating growth and fertility rates using age-at-death ratios in small skeletal samples: The effect of mortality and stochastic variation
Original language description
The common procedure for reconstructing growth and fertility rates from skeletal samples involves regressing a growth or fertility rate on the age-at-death ratio, an indicator that captures the proportion of children and juveniles in a skeletal sample. This study proposes a novel algorithm allowing a customized prediction formula to be produced for each target skeletal sample, which increases the accuracy of growth and fertility rate estimation. Every prediction equation is derived from a unique reference set of simulated skeletal samples that match the target skeletal sample in size and assumed mortality level of the population that the target skeletal sample represents. Regression models provide a reliable prediction; the models explain 83–95% of total variance. Due to stochastic variation, the prediction error is large when the estimate is based on a small number of skeletons but decreases substantially with increasing sample size.
Czech name
—
Czech description
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Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
50404 - Anthropology, ethnology

Project
<a href="/en/project/GA19-17810S" target="_blank" >GA19-17810S: Fertility and population growth in Central Europe from Neolithic to Medieval times: an application of stochastic simulations</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year
2023
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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