A fast re-sampling method for using reliability ratings of sightings with extinction-date estimators
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60077344%3A_____%2F19%3A00509637" target="_blank" >RIV/60077344:_____/19:00509637 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/60076658:12310/19:43899571
Result on the web
<a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/ecy.2787" target="_blank" >https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/ecy.2787</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ecy.2787" target="_blank" >10.1002/ecy.2787</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
A fast re-sampling method for using reliability ratings of sightings with extinction-date estimators
Original language description
The pattern of sightings of a species that is rare, and then no longer observed, can be used to estimate its extinction date. However, other than physical captures or specimens, the veracity of any sighting is ambiguous, and should be treated probabilistically when used to infer extinction dates. We present a simple yet powerful computational approach for incorporating observational reliability into extinction date estimators (EDE). Our method (1) combines repeated within-year sightings probabilistically, (2) samples observations using reliability as an inclusion probability, (3) infers a probability distribution and summary statistics of extinction dates with any EDE, and (4) computes the frequency distribution of the extinction date. We applied this method to eight exemplar sighting records covering a range of lengths, sighting rates and uncertainties, using a variety of statistical EDEs, and compared these results with a threshold approach for selecting sightings. We also demonstrated a robust coverage of true extinction dates based on selected real-world examples of rediscovered species and confirmed extinctions, and simulated sighting records. Our approach represents a powerful generalization of past work because it is not predicated on any specific method for inferring extinction dates, and yet is simple to implement (with R script provided).
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10618 - Ecology
Result continuities
Project
—
Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2019
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Ecology
ISSN
0012-9658
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
100
Issue of the periodical within the volume
9
Country of publishing house
US - UNITED STATES
Number of pages
7
Pages from-to
e02787
UT code for WoS article
000476192600001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85069844363