Boom and bust: Simulating the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of a global invader near the edge of its native range

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60077344%3A_____%2F22%3A00583539" target="_blank" >RIV/60077344:_____/22:00583539 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/60077344:_____/22:00562605

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158294" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158294</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158294" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158294</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Boom and bust: Simulating the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of a global invader near the edge of its native range

Original language description

Despite the increasing awareness of climate change, few studies have used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios to simulate the effects of climate change on estuarine populations of crustaceans. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of temperature and salinity fluctuations on the population dynamics of the shore crab Carcinus maenas at the southern edge of its native range. To this end, a population dynamics model was developed based on experimental and literature data on the biology, ecology and physiology of the species. Results showed that the shore crab will be more affected by changes in temperature than in salinity. The parameter sensitivity analysis revealed that the larval phase of the species is the most sensitive stage of the shore crab life cycle. Three IPCC scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-8.5) were used to simulate the effects of temperature increase on the population of C. maenas in the near- (2040), mid- (2060), and long-term (2100). Two scenarios of drought conditions accompanied by the estimated salinity change were also simulated (10 % and 40 % drought). Results suggested that slight increases in temperature (up to 2 degrees C) lead to a strong increase on the density of C. maenas in the mid-term, while further temperature increases lead to a decline or local extinction of the shore crab population at the southern edge of its distribution range. Results indicated that a salinity increase in the estuary had a negative effect on the shore crab population. Given the importance of the species to temperate coastal ecosystems, both population increase and local extinction are likely to have significant impacts on estuarine communities and food webs, with unknown ecological and socioeconomic consequences.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10618 - Ecology

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2022

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Science of the Total Environment

ISSN

0048-9697

e-ISSN

1879-1026

Volume of the periodical

851

Issue of the periodical within the volume

Aug

Country of publishing house

NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

Number of pages

15

Pages from-to

158294

UT code for WoS article

000863090700004

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85137029522