MARKOV MODEL FOR DESCRIPTION OF THE INTENSITY OF THE TERRORIST THREAT

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60162694%3AG42__%2F18%3A00536060" target="_blank" >RIV/60162694:G42__/18:00536060 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Result language
angličtina
Original language name
MARKOV MODEL FOR DESCRIPTION OF THE INTENSITY OF THE TERRORIST THREAT
Original language description
Terrorist attacks and threat of terrorism are connected with desta- bilization of the threatened societies. The statistical model enabling to predict the risk of the terrorist threat based on given determinants/indicators will be presented. The indicators of the threat of terrorism can be classified into the following categories: economical, social, demographical, political and security. The model is based on the theory of discrete, time nonhomogeneous Markov chains with a finite state space. The theory of generalized linear models is used for estimation of probabilities of the categorized level of terrorist threat. Then the transition probabilities of Markov chain are chosen with regards to the value of the indicators for given time period and considered region. The computed transition probabilities are used for estimation of the intensity (risk category) of terrorism threat. The verification of the model is carried out via simula- tion. Other data used for model verification come from the Global Terrorism Database of University of Maryland. The computational implementation of the suggested model is carried out in the R programming language.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Publication year
2018
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Article name in the collection
XXXII International Conference PDMU Problems of Decision Making under Uncertainties (proceedings)
ISBN
978-80-7582-069-3
ISSN
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e-ISSN
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Number of pages
7
Pages from-to
183-189
Publisher name
Univerzita Obrany, Brno
Place of publication
Česká Republika
Event location
Praha
Event date
Aug 27, 2018
Type of event by nationality
WRD - Celosvětová akce
UT code for WoS article
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