Redefining Defence Expenditures in B9 Countries: Risk-Based Model for Rational Allocation under Foreign Threat Scenarios
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60162694%3AG42__%2F26%3A00564627" target="_blank" >RIV/60162694:G42__/26:00564627 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://www.obranaastrategie.cz/filemanager/files/4557745-en.pdf" target="_blank" >https://www.obranaastrategie.cz/filemanager/files/4557745-en.pdf</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3849/1802-7199.25.2025.01.71-112" target="_blank" >10.3849/1802-7199.25.2025.01.71-112</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Redefining Defence Expenditures in B9 Countries: Risk-Based Model for Rational Allocation under Foreign Threat Scenarios
Original language description
The article proposes a risk-based model for rational defence expenditure in NATO’s Bucharest Nine (B9) countries that integrates socioeconomic variables and challenges the 2 %-of-GDP benchmark. It contends that optimal funding should reflect both national wealth and the probability and expected consequences of a foreign attack. Applying a quantitative model spanning 2001–2024, with emphasis on the post-2014 environment after Russia’s seizure of Crimea, the authors correlate actual spending with perceived risk and analyse shifts in budgets, threat perceptions, and prosperity, revealing major gaps between observed and rationalised outlays. The results underscore the value of context-sensitive, evidence-grounded budgeting for strategic foresight, credible deterrence, and prudent resource allocation under uncertainty.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
50601 - Political science
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2025
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
OBRANA A STRATEGIE-DEFENCE & STRATEGY
ISSN
1214-6463
e-ISSN
1802-7199
Volume of the periodical
25
Issue of the periodical within the volume
1
Country of publishing house
CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC
Number of pages
42
Pages from-to
71-112
UT code for WoS article
001523210000001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
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