The Impact of Brexit on Unemployment In The United Kingdom Using Synthetic Control Method

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41110%2F25%3A106241" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41110/25:106241 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://reference-global.com/article/10.2478/sues-2025-0007" target="_blank" >https://reference-global.com/article/10.2478/sues-2025-0007</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/sues-2025-0007" target="_blank" >10.2478/sues-2025-0007</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

The Impact of Brexit on Unemployment In The United Kingdom Using Synthetic Control Method

Original language description

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) (known as "Brexit") represented a challenge for labor markets on both sides. Hence, the aim of our paper is to assess the impact of this event on the unemployment rate in the UK. Specifically, the paper assesses the difference between unemployment in the UK after Brexit and unemployment in the UK in case the UK would have remained in the EU. Moreover, it identifies economic factors that influenced the monthly unemployment in the UK in the long and short run since the official Brexit happened in February 2020. The paper applies the synthetic control method for the data from the period 1995-2022 under three types of donor pools: a sample that includes all the Old EU Member States (EU Member States prior to the 2004 Enlargement), a similar sample that excludes Spain and Greece and a pool based only on the EU neighbors of the UK. The sample based only on the EU neighbors provides the most accurate results and indicates a lower, but non-significant unemployment in the absence of Brexit compared to the real situation. On the other hand, there is a long-run relationship from inflation and economic growth to unemployment in the period between February 2020 and December 2022, while inflation acts as a factor that reduces unemployment.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Project

—

Continuities

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

STUDIA UNIVERSITATIS VASILE GOLDIS ARAD SERIA STIINTE ECONOMICE

ISSN

1584-2339

e-ISSN

1584-2339

Volume of the periodical

35

Issue of the periodical within the volume

2

Country of publishing house

CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

Number of pages

27

Pages from-to

38-64

UT code for WoS article

001468930800005

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-105003638737