Multi-decade patterns of gypsy moth fluctuations in the Carpathian Mountains and options for outbreak forecasting

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41320%2F16%3A68538" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41320/16:68538 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10340-015-0694-7" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10340-015-0694-7</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10340-015-0694-7" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10340-015-0694-7</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Multi-decade patterns of gypsy moth fluctuations in the Carpathian Mountains and options for outbreak forecasting
Original language description
The gypsy moth is the most important defoliator of broadleaved forests in the Northern Hemisphere. We explored the patterns in the moths long-term dynamics and produced outbreak forecasts for seven countries located in central to southeastern Europe and extending into the Carpathian Mountains. We investigated how the outbreak periods and trends in the size of outbreak areas differ among the countries, the extent to which pest dynamics are synchronized, and how the observed patterns can be used to forecast outbreaks. We used long-term time series on outbreaks from about 1947 to 2013. The outbreak period ranged from 13 years in the northwest to 8 years in the southeast of the region, the periods were statistically significant in six of the seven countries. Two distinct patterns in outbreak size were observed, i.e. while outbreak areas in the northwest were increasing, exceptionally large outbreaks occasionally occurred in the southeastern part of the region. Outbreak forecasts based on combined use of
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
GK - Forestry
OECD FORD branch
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Project
<a href="/en/project/QJ1220316" target="_blank" >QJ1220316: Assessment of expected changes in growth and mortality of forest stands, impacts on forest production in the Czech Republic, and proposal of adaptation strategy</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year
2016
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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