Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41320%2F21%3A92030" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41320/21:92030 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/67985939:_____/21:00546878 RIV/00216208:11310/21:10439340
Result on the web
<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15333" target="_blank" >https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15333</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15333" target="_blank" >10.1111/gcb.15333</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050
Original language description
Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this r
Czech name
—
Czech description
—

Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
—
OECD FORD branch
10619 - Biodiversity conservation

Project
<a href="/en/project/EF16_019%2F0000803" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000803: Advanced research supporting the forestry and wood-processing sector´s adaptation to global change and the 4th industrial revolution</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year
2021
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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