Phylogenetic risk assessment is robust for forecasting the impact of European insects on North American conifers

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41320%2F23%3A96963" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41320/23:96963 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.2761" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.2761</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.2761" target="_blank" >10.1002/eap.2761</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Phylogenetic risk assessment is robust for forecasting the impact of European insects on North American conifers

Original language description

Some introduced species cause severe damage, although the majority have little impact. Robust predictions of which species are most likely to cause substantial impacts could focus efforts to mitigate those impacts or prevent certain invasions entirely. Introduced herbivorous insects can reduce crop yield, fundamentally alter natural and managed forest ecosystems, and are unique among invasive species in that they require certain host plants to succeed. Recent studies have demonstrated that understanding the evolutionary history of introduced herbivores and their host plants can provide robust predictions of impact. Specifically, divergence times between hosts in the native and introduced ranges of a nonnative insect can be used to predict the potential impact of the insect should it establish in a novel ecosystem. However, divergence time estimates vary among published phylogenetic datasets, making it crucial to understand if and how the choice of phylogeny affects prediction of impact. Here, we tested the robustness of impact prediction to variation in host phylogeny by using insects that feed on conifers and predicting the likelihood of high impact using four different published phylogenies. Our analyses ranked 62 insects that are not established in North America and 47 North American conifer species according to overall risk and vulnerability, respectively. We found that results were robust to the choice of phylogeny. Although published vascular plant phylogenies continue to be refined, our analysis indicates that those differences are not substantial enough to alter the predictions of invader impact. Our results can assist in focusing biosecurity programs for conifer pests and can be more generally applied to nonnative insects and their potential hosts by prioritizing surveillance for those insects most likely to be damaging invaders.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10618 - Ecology

Project

<a href="/en/project/EF16_019%2F0000803" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000803: Advanced research supporting the forestry and wood-processing sector´s adaptation to global change and the 4th industrial revolution</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2023

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

ISSN

1051-0761

e-ISSN

1051-0761

Volume of the periodical

33

Issue of the periodical within the volume

2

Country of publishing house

CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

Number of pages

16

Pages from-to

1-16

UT code for WoS article

000895590300001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85140443357