Drought initialised bark beetle outbreak in Central Europe: Meteorological factors and infestation dynamic

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41320%2F24%3A100563" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41320/24:100563 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121666" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121666</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121666" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121666</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Drought initialised bark beetle outbreak in Central Europe: Meteorological factors and infestation dynamic

Original language description

Extreme events, such as extreme droughts and intense temperatures, have become more frequent and severe, contributing to increased mortality rates in Norway spruce (Picea abies) due to bark beetle attacks. In particular, the most devastating outbreak of the spruce bark beetle in Central Europe began after the extreme drought year of 2018. This drought event also corresponds to the peak of the outbreak of the Eurasian spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) in the study area - the School Forest Enterprise in the area surrounding the town of Kostelec nad.Cernymi Lesy (Czech Republic). The study covers the period from 2012 to 2022, when there was a significant tree cover loss of 845.4 ha (15% of the spruce dominated area) that was caused by bark beetle. The primary objectives of the study were to identify the key meteorological variables affecting annual tree cover loss, bark beetle damage spot initiation, and spreading. We used the Global Forest Change dataset and meteorological data from the nearest weather station. The predictor variables were modelled in two ways: Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) regression and ridge regression. The study found that different climatic variables influenced the initialisation and spreading of bark beetle infestations. The most important climatic factor for initialisation is the duration of solar radiation in April of the previous year. The average annual air temperature in the current year plays an important role in the spreading of bark beetle spots. The higher area of spot initialisation occurred in the initial beetle outbreak phase, while the area of spreading of bark beetle spots started to increase at the peak, and was higher in later phases. Regarding annual tree cover loss, the most important factors are the duration of solar radiation in June and September of the current year, as well as the average annual precipitation of the previous year.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

40100 - Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries

Project

<a href="/en/project/QK1910480" target="_blank" >QK1910480: Development of integrated modern and innovative diagnostic and protection methods of spruce stands with the use of semiochemicals and methods of molecular biology.</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year

2024

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Forest Ecology and Management

ISSN

0378-1127

e-ISSN

0378-1127

Volume of the periodical

554

Issue of the periodical within the volume

12.0

Country of publishing house

NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

Number of pages

12

Pages from-to

1-12

UT code for WoS article

001154189900001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85182897457