Spruce bark beetle phenological modelling and drought risk within framework of TANABBO II model

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41320%2F24%3A101688" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41320/24:101688 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002023" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002023</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110814" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110814</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Spruce bark beetle phenological modelling and drought risk within framework of TANABBO II model

Original language description

Global warming plays a major role in the disruption of forest ecosystems by bark beetle outbreaks. Decreasing precipitation and more frequent droughts create the conditions for water stress in trees. The Eurasian spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) is more dangerous for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests in Central Europe under these conditions, because even healthy trees under water stress have a lower probability of survival during massive spruce bark beetle outbreaks. This critical issue highlights the importance of targeted research and intervention strategies in affected regions; hence, this study has a focus on the Horn & iacute; Plana region in Central Europe, which is managed by the Military Forests and Farms of the Czech Republic (VLS). The study presents the results of the drought risk assessment of the operational part of TANABBO II and its validation. TANABBO is a high spatial resolution risk assessment tool for spruce bark beetle infestation in Central European forests, incorporating 30 m spatial resolution and extensive meteorological data, which outperforms existing models in its ability to accurately predict bark beetle activity based on the PHENIPS phenological model. The operational part integrates environmental factors such as global radiation, temperature, precipitation and, in particular, water stress, which is assessed by using a transpiration deficit. The drought risk assessment included the calculation of Drought Indices (DI) and Cumulative Transpiration Deficit Indices (CTDI) on a daily basis, and the estimation of spruce bark beetle swarming time using the PHENIPS model. The risk assessment was validated by comparing it with the number of bark beetles caught in traps and the value of the drought index. Generalised additive models (GAM) were used for validation, with the most effective models incorporating the CTDI. The model with the highest predictive accuracy achieved an adjusted R-squared value of 0.478. The study highlights the critical role of high-resolution environmental data in understanding and managing bark beetle outbreaks, particularly in the context of climate change.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

40102 - Forestry

Project

Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year

2024

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

ISSN

0304-3800

e-ISSN

0304-3800

Volume of the periodical

496

Issue of the periodical within the volume

2024

Country of publishing house

CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

Number of pages

13

Pages from-to

1-13

UT code for WoS article

001291162100001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85200714259