The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41320%2F24%3A101690" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41320/24:101690 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969724051003" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969724051003</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174950" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174950</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change
Original language description
In recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, , has emerged as a significant threat to European oak forests. This species, native to North America, has in the last two decades rapidly extended its range in Europe, raising concerns about its potential impact on the continent's invaluable oak populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study to assess the distribution, colonization patterns, and potential ecological niche of the oak lace bug in Europe. We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such as research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, and social media reports. To delineate the realized niche and future distribution, we employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021-2040, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) to project and evaluate the species' potential distribution in the future. Our analysis revealed that significant hotspots rich in host species occurrence for this invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within its suitable habitat. Furthermore, the native ranges of Turkey oak ( Quercus cerris L.) and Hungarian oak ( Quercus frainetto L.) species offer entirely suitable environments for the oak lace bug. In contrast, the pedunculate oak and sessile oak distribution ranges currently show only 40 % and 50 % suitability for colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate a significant transformation in the habitat suitability of the oak lace bug, with suitability for these two oak species increasing by up to 90 %. This shift underlines an evolving landscape where the oak lace bug may exploit more of its available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises the pressing need for proactive measures to manage and stop its expanding presence, which may lead to a harmful impact on the oak population across the European landscape.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
40102 - Forestry
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach
Others
Publication year
2024
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Science of the Total Environment
ISSN
0048-9697
e-ISSN
0048-9697
Volume of the periodical
949
Issue of the periodical within the volume
2024
Country of publishing house
NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS
Number of pages
12
Pages from-to
1-12
UT code for WoS article
001292805800001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85199954010