The increasing role of drought as an inciting factor of bark beetle outbreaks can cause large-scale transformation of Central European forests

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41320%2F25%3A103163" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41320/25:103163 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-025-02125-w?utm_source=getftr&utm_medium=getftr&utm_campaign=getftr_pilot&getft_integrator=clarivate" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-025-02125-w?utm_source=getftr&utm_medium=getftr&utm_campaign=getftr_pilot&getft_integrator=clarivate</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-025-02125-w" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10980-025-02125-w</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

The increasing role of drought as an inciting factor of bark beetle outbreaks can cause large-scale transformation of Central European forests

Original language description

ContextHistorically, large-scale outbreaks of the European spruce bark beetle were initiated mainly by windthrows. However, after 2018, a severe drought triggered the hitherto largest bark beetle outbreak observed in Europe, signalling a major shift in the disturbance regime.ObjectivesDevelop and test an approach that allows simulating this novel disturbance dynamics and evaluate landscape-scale compound impacts of wind- and drought-initiated outbreaks throughout the twenty-first century.MethodsWe incorporated drought-initiated outbreaks into the forest landscape simulation model iLand, using critical values of vapour pressure deficit as the outbreak trigger. Forest management records and remote sensing-based disturbance maps were used to derive model parameters and evaluate simulated dynamics in a Central European forest landscape (41,000 hectares). The period 1961-2021 was used for model evaluation, and the years until 2100 for scenario analysis.ResultsIncorporating drought as outbreak trigger led to a notable decoupling of wind and bark beetle disturbances, which have historically formed a typical disturbance cascade in European forests. While forest growing stock and species composition were resilient to a wind-dominated disturbance regime, this resilience diminished under the compounded impact of wind- and drought-triggered disturbances. The new disturbance regime caused a persistent decline in Norway spruce and resulted in an overall decrease in landscape-level growing stock.ConclusionsOur findings underscore the urgent need for new approaches to evaluate increasingly complex disturbance dynamics and suggest that the future impacts of bark beetles on forest landscapes may be greater than previously anticipated.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10618 - Ecology

Project

<a href="/en/project/QK23020039" target="_blank" >QK23020039: Prognosis of bark beetle outbreak and innovative approaches to its management at the level of state and forest owners</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Landscape Ecology

ISSN

0921-2973

e-ISSN

0921-2973

Volume of the periodical

40

Issue of the periodical within the volume

6

Country of publishing house

US - UNITED STATES

Number of pages

19

Pages from-to

1-19

UT code for WoS article

001492904900001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

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