Abrupt events and population synchrony in the dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F18%3A76915" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/18:76915 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04915-0" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04915-0</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04915-0" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41467-018-04915-0</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Abrupt events and population synchrony in the dynamics of Bovine Tuberculosis
Original language description
Disease control strategies can have both intended and unintended effects on the dynamics of infectious diseases. Routine testing for the harmful pathogen Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) was suspended briefly during the foot and mouth disease epidemic of 2001 in Great Britain. Here we utilize bTB incidence data and mathematical models to demonstrate how a lapse in management can alter epidemiological parameters, including the rate of new infections and duration of infection cycles. Testing interruption shifted the dynamics from annual to 4-year cycles, and created long-lasting shifts in the spatial synchrony of new infections among regions of Great Britain. After annual testing was introduced in some GB regions, new infections have become more de-synchronised, a result also confirmed by a stochastic model. These results demonstrate that abrupt events can synchronise disease dynamics and that changes in the epidemiological parameters can lead to chaotic patterns, which are hard to be quantified, predicted, a
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
30302 - Epidemiology
Result continuities
Project
—
Continuities
S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach
Others
Publication year
2018
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Nature Communications
ISSN
2041-1723
e-ISSN
2041-1723
Volume of the periodical
9
Issue of the periodical within the volume
2821
Country of publishing house
CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC
Number of pages
10
Pages from-to
1-10
UT code for WoS article
000439111800001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85050542398