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Changes of Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Projections: Should We Use Stationary or Nonstationary Models?

The result's identifiers

  • Result code in IS VaVaI

    <a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F23%3A97216" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/23:97216 - isvavai.cz</a>

  • Result on the web

    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0467.1" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0467.1</a>

  • DOI - Digital Object Identifier

    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0467.1" target="_blank" >10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0467.1</a>

Alternative languages

  • Result language

    angličtina

  • Original language name

    Changes of Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Projections: Should We Use Stationary or Nonstationary Models?

  • Original language description

    With global warming, the behavior of extreme precipitation shifts toward nonstationarity. Here, we analyze the annual maxima of daily precipitation (AMP) all over the globe using projections of the latest phase of the Coupled corrected using a semiparametric quantile mapping, a novel technique extended to extreme precipitation. This analysis 1) explores the variability of future AMP globally and 2) investigates the performance of stationary and nonstationary models in describing future AMP with trends. The results show that global warming potentially intensifies AMP. For the nonparametric analysis, the 33-yr precipitation levels are increasing up to 33.2 mm compared to the historical period. The parametric analysis shows that the return period of 100-yr historical events will decrease approximately to 50 and 70 years in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. Under the highest emission scenario, the projected 100-yr levels are expected to increase by 7.5%-21% over the historical levels. Using stationary models to estimate the 100-yr return level for AMP projections with trends leads to an underestimation of 3.4% on average. Extensive Monte Carlo experiments are implemented to explain this underestimation.

  • Czech name

  • Czech description

Classification

  • Type

    J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

  • CEP classification

  • OECD FORD branch

    10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Result continuities

  • Project

  • Continuities

    S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Others

  • Publication year

    2023

  • Confidentiality

    S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Data specific for result type

  • Name of the periodical

    JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

  • ISSN

    0894-8755

  • e-ISSN

    0894-8755

  • Volume of the periodical

    36

  • Issue of the periodical within the volume

    9

  • Country of publishing house

    CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

  • Number of pages

    16

  • Pages from-to

    2999-3014

  • UT code for WoS article

    000964667100001

  • EID of the result in the Scopus database

    2-s2.0-85158866965