Changes of Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Projections: Should We Use Stationary or Nonstationary Models?
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F23%3A97216" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/23:97216 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0467.1" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0467.1</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0467.1" target="_blank" >10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0467.1</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Changes of Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Projections: Should We Use Stationary or Nonstationary Models?
Original language description
With global warming, the behavior of extreme precipitation shifts toward nonstationarity. Here, we analyze the annual maxima of daily precipitation (AMP) all over the globe using projections of the latest phase of the Coupled corrected using a semiparametric quantile mapping, a novel technique extended to extreme precipitation. This analysis 1) explores the variability of future AMP globally and 2) investigates the performance of stationary and nonstationary models in describing future AMP with trends. The results show that global warming potentially intensifies AMP. For the nonparametric analysis, the 33-yr precipitation levels are increasing up to 33.2 mm compared to the historical period. The parametric analysis shows that the return period of 100-yr historical events will decrease approximately to 50 and 70 years in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. Under the highest emission scenario, the projected 100-yr levels are expected to increase by 7.5%-21% over the historical levels. Using stationary models to estimate the 100-yr return level for AMP projections with trends leads to an underestimation of 3.4% on average. Extensive Monte Carlo experiments are implemented to explain this underestimation.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach
Others
Publication year
2023
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN
0894-8755
e-ISSN
0894-8755
Volume of the periodical
36
Issue of the periodical within the volume
9
Country of publishing house
CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC
Number of pages
16
Pages from-to
2999-3014
UT code for WoS article
000964667100001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85158866965