Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F23%3A97564" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/23:97564 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1" target="_blank" >10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Original language description

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting. Species' range shifts projections are usually based on climate and land cover variables. Here, the authors use long-term records for bird species to show that species distribution models accounting for climate and land cover often fail to predict observed range shifts.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10619 - Biodiversity conservation

Project

—

Continuities

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year

2023

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Nature Communications

ISSN

2041-1723

e-ISSN

2041-1723

Volume of the periodical

14

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1

Country of publishing house

CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

Number of pages

12

Pages from-to

1-12

UT code for WoS article

001040020600003

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85165465504