How likely is Ukraine to experience an extreme drought in the near future?

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F25%3A102084" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/25:102084 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03958-9" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03958-9</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03958-9" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10584-025-03958-9</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

How likely is Ukraine to experience an extreme drought in the near future?

Original language description

This study assesses projected changes in precipitation (documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$P$$end{document}), discharge (documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$Q$$end{document}), and soil moisture (documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$SM$$end{document})-based droughts in Ukraine using CMIP6 bias-corrected climate models and the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). Despite model variability, results reveal substantial increases in documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$Q$$end{document}- and documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$SM$$end{document}-droughts' duration and severity across all scenarios, with the most severe impacts under SSP5-8.5 in the end of the century. Specifically, for both drought types, 50-year extreme documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$SM$$end{document}- and documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$Q$$end{document}-droughts are projected to be the norm by 2055, exhibiting at least a twofold increase in duration and severity by the end of the century under SSP5-8.5. documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$P$$end{document}-droughts, in contrast, are projected to show relatively modest increases in severity and duration. Beyond enhanced droughts, water availability is anticipated to decline across the country, further exacerbating Ukraine's water- and agriculture-related issues in a war-affected context. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive water management to secure Ukraine's agricultural sector-a cornerstone of regional and global food security-against the dual threats of drought intensification and the ongoing conflict.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10501 - Hydrology

Project

<a href="/en/project/GA23-08056S" target="_blank" >GA23-08056S: Dynamic tracking of drought events and their classification on the global scale - DynamicDrought</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

CLIMATIC CHANGE

ISSN

0165-0009

e-ISSN

0165-0009

Volume of the periodical

178

Issue of the periodical within the volume

6

Country of publishing house

CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

Number of pages

14

Pages from-to

1-14

UT code for WoS article

001500441700001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-105007011718