Prediction of the Epidemiological Situation of Tuberculosis in Slovakia by 2040- Data Update

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61988987%3A17110%2F21%3AA2202DOH" target="_blank" >RIV/61988987:17110/21:A2202DOH - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://ijph.tums.ac.ir/index.php/ijph/article/view/19217" target="_blank" >https://ijph.tums.ac.ir/index.php/ijph/article/view/19217</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Prediction of the Epidemiological Situation of Tuberculosis in Slovakia by 2040- Data Update

Original language description

Background: Despite the available diagnostics and treatment, tuberculosis (TB) is a serious infectious disease currently occurring. Even some high-income countries in the world do not fully control it at this time. The reason for this situation is the lack of elimination programs to address the situation. The aim of the update of the prediction data was to create a presumption of TB development in Slovakia by 2040. Methods: We used the time series prediction method with exponential equalization. The basis for the calculation were historical data on the incidence of TB from 1960 to 2018 in Slovakia (data for the last 58 yr). This time series has a clearly declining level. In view of this trend, we have set a threshold, whether and when the incidence in the future will fall below 5.0 patients per 100,000 inhabitants. Results: In case of a favorable development, the limit of our incidence drop below 5.0 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in 2022, when the incidence will be 4.91 per 100 000 inhabitants. In 2040, the predicted incidence of TB should be 1.78 per 100 000 inhabitants. A gradual decline may also be related to a decrease in the population of the Slovak Republic. Conclusion: Slovakia belongs to those countries of the world where TB is under control. Increased surveillance of high-risk communities through community interventions and countries' readiness for global migration can help to influence factors that may aggravate the epidemiological situation of TB.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

30304 - Public and environmental health

Project

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Continuities

V - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z jinych verejnych zdroju

Publication year

2021

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH

ISSN

2251-6085

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

50

Issue of the periodical within the volume

11

Country of publishing house

IR - IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF

Number of pages

9

Pages from-to

2229-2237

UT code for WoS article

000712044100009

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85117337661