Parameter Estimation in the SIR Model Using Collocation Method

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27120%2F25%3A10259574" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27120/25:10259574 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://rpsonline.com.sg/proceedings/esrel-sra-e2025/html/ESREL-SRA-E2025-P6771.html" target="_blank" >https://rpsonline.com.sg/proceedings/esrel-sra-e2025/html/ESREL-SRA-E2025-P6771.html</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3850/978-981-94-3281-3_esrel-sra-e2025-p6771-cd" target="_blank" >10.3850/978-981-94-3281-3_esrel-sra-e2025-p6771-cd</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Parameter Estimation in the SIR Model Using Collocation Method
Original language description
In this paper, we present a methodology for estimating the parameters of a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for the SIR model, a critical tool for understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases. The SIR model is essential for predicting outbreak patterns and informing public health interventions, playing a pivotal role in safety analysis. The parameters of the model are estimated from measured data while simultaneously solving the corresponding system of ODEs numerically. Our approach is based on the collocation method, where the solution is expressed as a linear combination of B-spline basis functions and fitted to the data through regression. The square Euclidean measure is used for both regression fitting and minimizing the ODE error. This problem is formulated as a multicriteria optimization task, balancing errors in the model fit and the numerical solution of the ODE system. The entire methodology is implemented in the MATLAB environment. We present numerical results and demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach for parameter estimation in epidemiological models using artificial benchmark datasets.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year
2025
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Article name in the collection
Proceedings of the 35th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2025) and the 33rd Society for Risk Analysis Europe Conference (SRA-E 2025) : 15th June - 19th June 2025, University of Stavanger, Norway
ISBN
978-981-9432-81-3
ISSN
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e-ISSN
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Number of pages
8
Pages from-to
3274-3281
Publisher name
Research Publishing
Place of publication
Singapur
Event location
Stavanger
Event date
Jun 15, 2025
Type of event by nationality
WRD - Celosvětová akce
UT code for WoS article
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