A prediction of long-run macroeconomic relations and investigation of domestic shock effects in the Czech economy
Result description
The aim of the paper is to estimate a macroeconomic model of the Czech economy which will be used for the investigation of impulse response function to domestic and external shocks and a macroeconomic development prediction will be compared with the realCzech economy development. The macroeconomic model uses a modification of the modelling strategy developed by Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2006). The strategy provides a practical approach to incorporating theoretic long-run relationships of a smallopen economy through a structural vector error correction model (VECM). The data are quarterly and run from the first quarter 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2010. We are able to identify the long-run structure amongst those variables and to test over-identifying restrictions on the cointegrating vectors. We analyse the consequences of imposing the long-run restrictions for the impulse response functions. The estimated macroeconomic model has been used for the prediction.
Keywords
Macroeconometric modelLong-run relationshipsImpulse Response FunctionsCointegrated VAR modelCzech economyForecasting
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
Result on the web
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DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
A prediction of long-run macroeconomic relations and investigation of domestic shock effects in the Czech economy
Original language description
The aim of the paper is to estimate a macroeconomic model of the Czech economy which will be used for the investigation of impulse response function to domestic and external shocks and a macroeconomic development prediction will be compared with the realCzech economy development. The macroeconomic model uses a modification of the modelling strategy developed by Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2006). The strategy provides a practical approach to incorporating theoretic long-run relationships of a smallopen economy through a structural vector error correction model (VECM). The data are quarterly and run from the first quarter 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2010. We are able to identify the long-run structure amongst those variables and to test over-identifying restrictions on the cointegrating vectors. We analyse the consequences of imposing the long-run restrictions for the impulse response functions. The estimated macroeconomic model has been used for the prediction.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
D - Article in proceedings
CEP classification
AH - Economics
OECD FORD branch
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Result continuities
Project
GA402/08/1015: Macroeconomic Models of the Cyech Economy and Economies of the other EU Countries
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)
Others
Publication year
2011
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Article name in the collection
Mathematical Models and Methods in Modern Science
ISBN
978-1-61804-055-8
ISSN
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e-ISSN
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Number of pages
6
Pages from-to
15-20
Publisher name
WSEAS Press
Place of publication
Puerto De La Cruz
Event location
Puerto De La Cruz, Tenerife
Event date
Dec 10, 2011
Type of event by nationality
WRD - Celosvětová akce
UT code for WoS article
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Basic information
Result type
D - Article in proceedings
CEP
AH - Economics
Year of implementation
2011