Hybrid demand forecasting models: pre-pandemic and pandemic use studies

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27510%2F22%3A10250564" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27510/22:10250564 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://economic-research.pl/Journals/index.php/eq/article/view/2013" target="_blank" >http://economic-research.pl/Journals/index.php/eq/article/view/2013</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/eq.2022.024" target="_blank" >10.24136/eq.2022.024</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Hybrid demand forecasting models: pre-pandemic and pandemic use studies

Original language description

Research background:In business practice and academic sphere, the question of which of the prognostic models is the most accurate is constantly present. The accuracy of models based on artificial intelligence and statistical models has long been discussed. By combining the advantages of both groups, hybrid models have emerged. These models show high accuracy. Moreover, the question remains whether data in a dynamically changing economy (for example, in a pandemic period) have changed the possibilities of using these models. The changing economy will continue to be an important element in demand forecasting in the years to come. In business, where the concept of just in time already proves to be insufficient, it is necessary to open new research questions in the field of demand forecasting. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to apply hybrid models to bicycle sales e-shop data with a comparison of accuracy models in the pre-pandemic period and in the pandemic period. The paper examines the hypothesis that the pandemic period has changed the accuracy of hybrid models in comparison with statistical models and models based on artificial neural networks. Models: In this study, hybrid models will be used, namely the Theta model and the new forecastHybrid, compared to the statistical models ETS, ARIMA, and models based on artificial neural networks. They will be applied to the data of the e-shop with the cycle assortment in the period from 1.1. 2019 to 5.10 2021. Whereas the period will be divided into two parts, pre pandemic, i.e. until 1 March 2020 and pandemic after that date. The accuracy evaluation will be based on the RMSE, MAE, and ACF1 indicators. Findings &amp; value added: In this study, we have concluded that the prediction of the Hybrid model was the most accurate in both periods. The study can thus provide a scientific basis for any other dynamic changes that may occur in demand forecasting in the future. In other periods when there will be volatile demand, it is essential to choose models in which accuracy will decrease the least. Therefore, this study provides guidance for the use of methods in future periods as well. The stated results are likely to be valid even in an international comparison. (C) Instytut Badań Gospodarczych / Institute of Economic Research (Poland).

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50204 - Business and management

Project

—

Continuities

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Publication year

2022

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Equilibrium-Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy

ISSN

1689-765X

e-ISSN

2353-3293

Volume of the periodical

17

Issue of the periodical within the volume

3

Country of publishing house

PL - POLAND

Number of pages

27

Pages from-to

699-725

UT code for WoS article

000868520300004

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85139453919