Time Series Analysis by Fuzzy Linear Regression

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989592%3A15210%2F22%3A73617505" target="_blank" >RIV/61989592:15210/22:73617505 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.revistadestatistica.ro/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/A1_RRS-3_2022.pdf" target="_blank" >https://www.revistadestatistica.ro/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/A1_RRS-3_2022.pdf</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Time Series Analysis by Fuzzy Linear Regression

Original language description

Fuzzy set theory constitutes the theoretical background for abstractly formalizing the vague phenomenon of complex systems. Vague data are defined herein as specialized fuzzy sets, i.e., fuzzy numbers, and a fuzzy linear regression model is described as a fuzzy function with such numbers as vague parameters. We applied a generic algorithm to identify the associated coefficients of the model, and provide both analytically and graphically, a linear approximation of the vague function, together with description of its potential application. We also provide an example of the fuzzy linear regression model being employed in a time series with economic indicators, namely the evolution of the unemployment, agricultural production, and construction between 2009 and 2011 in the Czech Republic. We selected this period since it represents the period when the financial and economic crisis started, and a certain degree of uncertainty existed in the evolution of economic indicators. Results take the form of fuzzy regression models in relation to variables of the time-specific series. For the period 2009-2011, analysis confirmed assumptions held by the authors on the seasonal behaviour of such variables and connections between them. In 2010, the system behaved in a fuzzier manner; hence, relationships between variables were vaguer than otherwise, brought about by factors such as difference in the elasticity of demand, state interventions, globalization, and transnational impacts.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Project

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Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2022

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Romanian Statistical Review

ISSN

1018-046X

e-ISSN

1844-7694

Volume of the periodical

2022

Issue of the periodical within the volume

3

Country of publishing house

RO - ROMANIA

Number of pages

19

Pages from-to

3-21

UT code for WoS article

000913205300001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

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