Synchronization of economic cycles in countries of the Visegrad Group, Germany and Eurozone

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62156489%3A43110%2F18%3A43913833" target="_blank" >RIV/62156489:43110/18:43913833 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201866030719" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201866030719</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201866030719" target="_blank" >10.11118/actaun201866030719</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Synchronization of economic cycles in countries of the Visegrad Group, Germany and Eurozone

Original language description

Most countries of the Visegrad group presently undertake meticulous preparation for entry to the Eurozone, which makes the issue of business cycle synchronization contemporary. In this study, we identified business cycle in V4 member states, Germany and the Eurozone and investigated the degree of business cycle synchronization among V4 countries, with Germany and the Eurozone. Quarterly GDP data, season and calendar adjusted from 1995: 1 through 2016: 4 (T = 88) were broken down to trend and cyclical elements by the Hodrick-Prescott filter and used to obtain the relative output gap. Phases of the business cycle were identified through modified BBQ algorithm. Business cycle synchronization was quantified with Pearson correlation coefficient, concordance index and Mink similarity index calculated separately for time segments before EU accession in 2004 and after. Tests of statistical significance were carried out, where relevant. In the period before EU enlargement, few economic cycles were correlated weakly, but many were not synchronized at all or were even negatively correlated. After EU accession, the cycles became closely synchronized among V4 countries or between V4 state and Germany or Eurozone. Although the degree of correlation between V4 countries and Eurozone is not as strong, as for Germany and Eurozone, it is obvious that V4 countries are becoming increasingly prepared for adopting Euro, as their currency, with respect to the requisite of economic cycle synchronization.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_SC - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the SCOPUS database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Project

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Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2018

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis

ISSN

1211-8516

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

66

Issue of the periodical within the volume

3

Country of publishing house

CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC

Number of pages

10

Pages from-to

719-728

UT code for WoS article

—

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85049903763