Dynamic framework for strategic forecasting of the bank consumer loan market: Evidence from Ukraine

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62156489%3A43110%2F23%3A43926035" target="_blank" >RIV/62156489:43110/23:43926035 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.08" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.08</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.08" target="_blank" >10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.08</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Dynamic framework for strategic forecasting of the bank consumer loan market: Evidence from Ukraine

Original language description

Accurate forecasting of consumer loan market behavior gives banks a huge potential to optimize their credit strategies by proactively adapting to external changes. This study aims to analyze and predict consumer loan demand, supply, and profitability in the Ukrainian banking sector. Using a systemic dynamic approach, the interplay of five key factors is considered: central bank policies, GDP fluctuations, changing competitive landscape driven by FinTech companies, investment in government bonds as an alternative to loan granting, and severity of credit risk management. The developed dynamic model for the bank consumer loan market in Ukraine offers predictive capabilities enhancing decision-making and strategic planning in the banking sector and can be adapted in open small economies. Within the proposed systemic dynamic model, five scenarios were explored. Compared to the base scenario, a 4 p.p. increase in the key policy rate results in UAH 4.7 billion decrease in demand for bank consumer loans and a UAH 0.55 billion reduction in lending profitability based on the year&apos;s results. Fall in GDP by 6 p.p. leads to a decrease in the supply of bank consumer loans by UAH 6.9 billion and a decrease in lending income by UAH 1.3 billion based on the year&apos;s results. Scenario with the decline of FinTech portfolio by 20 p.p. quarterly leads to an increase in demand for bank consumer loans of UAH 8 billion. A 4 p.p. rise in government bond yields leads to a UAH 17 billion reduction in the supply of consumer loans in the same quarter.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50206 - Finance

Project

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Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2023

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Banks and Bank Systems

ISSN

1816-7403

e-ISSN

1991-7074

Volume of the periodical

18

Issue of the periodical within the volume

3

Country of publishing house

UA - UKRAINE

Number of pages

14

Pages from-to

87-100

UT code for WoS article

001303610000008

EID of the result in the Scopus database

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