Modelling the impact of stand type, tree traits, and temperature on norway spruce survival under bark beetle attack in Germany

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62156489%3A43110%2F25%3A43926940" target="_blank" >RIV/62156489:43110/25:43926940 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2025.122713" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2025.122713</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2025.122713" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.foreco.2025.122713</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Modelling the impact of stand type, tree traits, and temperature on norway spruce survival under bark beetle attack in Germany
Original language description
Forests provide vital ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, water regulation, and habitat diversity. However, climate change and bark beetle infestations threaten forest stability, particularly in Norway spruce (Picea abies) monocultures. This study examines how stand type (mixed vs. pure spruce stands), tree characteristics (e.g., diameter, height, crown area), and mean annual temperature influence the survival of Norway spruce under bark beetle attack. Using field data from the German Forest Inventory (2012-2022) on over 100,000 trees, we compared survival rates in mixed stands and monocultures through chi-squared tests, logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and Cox proportional hazards models. Results reveal that Norway spruce in mixed stands have significantly higher survival rates under bark beetle attack-on average 10 % higher than monocultures-while survival rates are similar without beetle pressure. Stand type and mean annual temperature emerged as key predictors of Norway spruce survival. These findings highlight the role of diverse stand compositions in enhancing forest resilience, supporting adopting mixed-forest management practices to mitigate climate change impacts and biotic stressors.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10103 - Statistics and probability

Publication year
2025
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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