Economic growth in 26 European Union Economies: evidence from conditional convergence

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62156489%3A43110%2F25%3A43927750" target="_blank" >RIV/62156489:43110/25:43927750 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-025-00671-y" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-025-00671-y</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s43093-025-00671-y" target="_blank" >10.1186/s43093-025-00671-y</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Economic growth in 26 European Union Economies: evidence from conditional convergence

Original language description

This study investigates conditional income convergence among 26 European Union member states from 1995 to 2022, focusing on GDP per capita growth and complemented by an analysis of unemployment dynamics. Three advanced heterogeneous panel estimators are employed: the pooled mean group autoregressive distributed lag (PMG-ARDL) and dynamic common correlated effects ARDL (CS-ARDL) to capture linear relationships, and the pooled mean group nonlinear ARDL (PMG-NARDL) to account for potential asymmetric adjustments. These methods address slope heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and nonstationarity. Panel unit-root and cointegration tests confirm long-run relationships, and Dumitrescu-Hurlin tests assess causality. In the linear PMG and CS-ARDL models for GDP per capita growth, inflation and gross capital formation hinder long-run growth, while government spending, labor force participation, and trade openness have positive effects. In the unemployment models, GDP growth, trade openness, and government spending reduce unemployment, whereas inflation and gross capital formation increase it. The nonlinear PMG-NARDL results reveal that the direction of change in variables such as government debt, capital formation, inflation, and trade openness matters, with positive and negative shocks often having different long-run effects. Error correction terms across models indicate stable adjustment, in some cases with damped oscillations. Policy implications show the need to maintain price stability, improve the efficiency of public investment, sustain trade openness, and promote labor force participation alongside prudent debt management. Convergence patterns remain heterogeneous across member states, reflecting differences in structural and policy characteristics.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

50202 - Applied Economics, Econometrics

Project

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Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2025

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Future Business Journal

ISSN

2314-7202

e-ISSN

2314-7210

Volume of the periodical

11

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1

Country of publishing house

US - UNITED STATES

Number of pages

22

Pages from-to

250

UT code for WoS article

001606324600001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

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