Estimating mortality rates of European ash (Fraxinus excelsior) under the ash dieback (Hymenoscyphus fraxineus) epidemic

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62156489%3A43410%2F19%3A43920587" target="_blank" >RIV/62156489:43410/19:43920587 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.11" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.11</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.11" target="_blank" >10.1002/ppp3.11</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Estimating mortality rates of European ash (Fraxinus excelsior) under the ash dieback (Hymenoscyphus fraxineus) epidemic

Original language description

Societal Impact Statement Damage to ash trees by ash dieback caused by the emerging fungal pathogen Hymenoscyphus fraxineus is impacting people across Europe. This poses challenges to: public safety; productivity of commercial forestry; green spaces and human well-being; and ecosystem services and carbon sequestration. Here, we seek to quantify the impact of ash dieback on tree mortality by analyzing surveys counting the proportion of trees that have died in sites across Europe. However, more and better data are needed to inform policy makers, foresters, conservationists, and other stakeholders as they plan for a long-term future with ash dieback. Summary The ash dieback epidemic, caused by the fungus Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, has been present in Europe for over 20 years and caused widespread damage and mortality in ash tree (Fraxinus excelsior) populations. Ash is a major natural capital asset and plays an important role in nature&apos;s contribution to people in Europe. Here, we present a meta-analysis of surveys of ash mortality due to ash dieback, and a time-dependent model to estimate longer term mortality. In plantations established previous to the arrival of the epidemic, we analyze 12 surveys, finding a maximum recorded mortality of similar to 85%. In woodlands with exposure to ash dieback of between 4 and 20 years, we analyze 36 surveys, finding a maximum recorded mortality (which may have missed some dead trees) of similar to 70%. We also analyze 10 surveys of naturally regenerated saplings, finding maximum recorded mortality of similar to 82%. We apply logistic models to these data sets to seek longer term predictions. More data are needed before our models can be relied upon for policy decisions. If survival found so far in woodlands is due in part to heritable resistance, natural selection or a breeding program may allow future recovery of ash populations in Europe.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10611 - Plant sciences, botany

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2019

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Plants, people, planet

ISSN

2572-2611

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

1

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1

Country of publishing house

US - UNITED STATES

Number of pages

11

Pages from-to

48-58

UT code for WoS article

000692549100010

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85063054616