Climate change effects on the potential distribution of the endemic Commiphora species (Burseraceae) on the island of Socotra

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62156489%3A43410%2F23%3A43923550" target="_blank" >RIV/62156489:43410/23:43923550 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1183858" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1183858</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1183858" target="_blank" >10.3389/ffgc.2023.1183858</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Climate change effects on the potential distribution of the endemic Commiphora species (Burseraceae) on the island of Socotra

Original language description

The Socotra Archipelago (Yemen) is an interesting biodiversity hotspot, with a significant proportion of endemic species that have evolved to survive in an arid subtropical environment, inscribed as a World Heritage Site by UNESCO. The terrestrial ecosystems of Socotra face several threats, including climate change, overgrazing and soil degradation. Socotra Island has four endemic species of the genus Commiphora (Burseraceae). Little is known about their local distribution and ecology, yet these trees could be useful indicator species. Our study focuses on the distribution and niche characterisation of the four endemic Commiphora species of Socotra and how climate change may affect them. The aim is to improve insights into their habitats and to provide an essential basis for future local management plans and ecological restoration. We compared the current distribution with the forecasted potential distribution under a CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate scenario, allowing us to define target conservation areas and assess potential local extinction risks. To achieve this, we collected distribution data in the field throughout Socotra Island, covering the current distribution ranges of the four species. To assess the potential distribution of these species, we applied three models (GAM, MaxEnt, RandomForest) using bioclimatic, topographic and soil variables. Forecasts under a climate change scenario were made using bioclimatic variables from the CMCC-CESM2 climate model for two different socioeconomic pathways. The distribution of three endemic Socotran Commiphora is mainly correlated to clay content in the soil and winter precipitation, while C. socotrana is affected by seasonal precipitation and temperature. Under different potential future climate scenarios, the distribution of C. ornifolia is predicted to remain stable or increase, while C. parvifolia distribution could increase, yet C. planifrons and C. socotrana are predicted to undergo a strong reduction of suitable areas and an upward shift in the mountains. Our results highlight that it is essential to conserve the unique terrestrial ecosystems in Socotra and to preserve these endemic trees which have a wide range of ecosystem services. Updates on the predicted extinction risk assessment are fundamental to understand conservation priorities and strategize future actions to ensure the persistence of Socotran myrrh trees and other endangered endemic tree taxa on the island.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10618 - Ecology

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2023

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change

ISSN

2624-893X

e-ISSN

2624-893X

Volume of the periodical

6

Issue of the periodical within the volume

2 June

Country of publishing house

CH - SWITZERLAND

Number of pages

15

Pages from-to

1183858

UT code for WoS article

001012479200001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85163590506