The ADnet Bayesian belief network for alder decline: Integrating empirical data and expert knowledge

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62156489%3A43410%2F24%3A43925234" target="_blank" >RIV/62156489:43410/24:43925234 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173619" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173619</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173619" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173619</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

The ADnet Bayesian belief network for alder decline: Integrating empirical data and expert knowledge

Original language description

The globalization in plant material trading has caused the emergence of invasive pests in many ecosystems, such as the alder pathogen Phytophthora xalni in European riparian forests. Due to the ecological importance of alder to the functioning of rivers and the increasing incidence of P. xalni-induced alder decline, effective and accessible decision tools are required to help managers and stakeholders control the disease. This study proposes a Bayesian belief network methodology to integrate diverse information on the factors affecting the survival and infection ability of P. xalni in riparian habitats to help predict and manage disease incidence. The resulting Alder Decline Network (ADnet) management tool integrates information about alder decline from scientific literature, expert knowledge and empirical data. Expert knowledge was gathered through elicitation techniques that included 19 experts from 12 institutions and 8 countries. An original dataset was created covering 1189 European locations, from which P. xalni occurrence was modeled based on bioclimatic variables. ADnet uncertainty was evaluated through its sensitivity to changes in states and three scenario analyses. The ADnet tool indicated that mild temperatures and high precipitation are key factors favoring pathogen survival. Flood timing, water velocity, and soil type have the strongest influence on disease incidence. ADnet can support ecosystem management decisions and knowledge transfer to address P. xalni-induced alder decline at local or regional levels across Europe. Management actions such as avoiding the planting of potentially infected trees or removing man-made structures that increase the flooding period in disease-affected sites could decrease the incidence of alder disease in riparian forests and limit its spread. The coverage of the ADnet tool can be expanded by updating data on the pathogen&apos;s occurrence, particularly from its distributional limits. Research on the role of genetic variability in alder susceptibility and pathogen virulence may also help improve future ADnet versions.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10612 - Mycology

Project

<a href="/en/project/EF15_003%2F0000453" target="_blank" >EF15_003/0000453: Phytophthora Research Centre</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2024

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Science of the Total Environment

ISSN

0048-9697

e-ISSN

1879-1026

Volume of the periodical

947

Issue of the periodical within the volume

15 October

Country of publishing house

NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

Number of pages

15

Pages from-to

173619

UT code for WoS article

001270516700001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85198028751