NONLINEAR PREDICTION OF THE GDP GROWTH RATE IN THE GLOBALIZED WORLD
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62690094%3A18470%2F16%3A50015032" target="_blank" >RIV/62690094:18470/16:50015032 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://ke.uniza.sk/en/conference" target="_blank" >https://ke.uniza.sk/en/conference</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
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Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
NONLINEAR PREDICTION OF THE GDP GROWTH RATE IN THE GLOBALIZED WORLD
Original language description
In the present complex and globalized world, often classical linear prediction methods fail, so it is necessary to look for other methods. We deal with approaches based on chaos theory and we focus on nonlinear prediction. The goal of this paper is to analyse the gross domestic product (GDP) and to find chaos in the GDP growth rate time series. At the beginning of our analysis we must deal with the fundamental question regarding the existence of deterministic chaos. We estimated the time delay and the embedding dimension, which is needed for the Lyapunov exponent estimation and for the phase space reconstruction. Subsequently, we computed the largest Lyapunov exponent, which is one of the important indicators of chaos. The results indicated that chaotic behaviors obviously exist in GDP. If the system behaves chaotically, we are forced to accept limited predictions. Deterministic chaos, usually referred to simply as chaos, indicates presence of structure and often very complex order on a global scale but absence of these characteristics on a local scale. In general, chaotic processes can be characterized by irregular and long-telin unpredictable behavior, but this behavior is purely deterministic. Finally we computed predictions using a radial basis function to fit global nonlinear functions to the data.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
D - Article in proceedings
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10102 - Applied mathematics
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2016
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Article name in the collection
Globalization and Its Socio-Economic Consequences
ISBN
978-80-8154-191-9
ISSN
2454-0943
e-ISSN
neuvedeno
Number of pages
8
Pages from-to
1069-1076
Publisher name
ZU - UNIVERSITY OF ZILINA
Place of publication
Žilina
Event location
Rajecke Teplice
Event date
Oct 5, 2016
Type of event by nationality
WRD - Celosvětová akce
UT code for WoS article
000393253800133