Multivariate energy forecasting via metaheuristic tuned long-short term memory and gated recurrent unit neural networks

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62690094%3A18470%2F23%3A50021380" target="_blank" >RIV/62690094:18470/23:50021380 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0020025523007077" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0020025523007077</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2023.119122" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.ins.2023.119122</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Multivariate energy forecasting via metaheuristic tuned long-short term memory and gated recurrent unit neural networks

Original language description

Energy forecasting plays an important role in effective power grid management. The widespread adoption of emerging technologies and the increased reliance on renewable sources of energy have created a need for a robust and accurate system for energy forecasting. This demand is becoming increasingly relevant due to the ongoing 2022 energy crisis. Modern power systems are very complex with many complicated correlations between various forecasting factors and parameters. Furthermore, renewable energy is often dependent on weather conditions, which complicates the process of forecasting. This work presents a novel artificial intelligence (AI) driven energy forecasting tuned deep learning framework. By formatting predictors as a time series, two variations of recurrent neural networks (RNN)s have been implemented: long -short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) neural networks. However, both approaches present several hyperparameters that require adequate tuning to attain desirable performance. Therefore, this work also proposes an improved version of a well know swarm intelligence algorithm, the sine cosine algorithm (SCA), tasked with tackling hyperparameter tuning for both approaches. To demonstrate the improvements made, three datasets have been constructed for evaluation from publicly available real-world data that contain relevant solar, wind, and power-grid load parameters alongside weather data. The proposed metaheuristic algorithm has been subjected to a comparative analysis with several contemporary metaheuristic algorithms to showcase the improvements made. The introduced metaheuristic demonstrated the best performance with a mean square error (MSE) rate for solar generation of only 0.0132 with LSTM methods and 0.0134 with GRU. Similar performance was observed for wind power generation forecasting with a MSE of 0.00292 with LSTM and 0.00287. When tackling power grid load forecasting a median MSE of 0.0162 was attained with LSTM and 0.01504 with GRU. Therefore there is great potential for tackling these tasks using the proposed approach. The best-performing models have been analyzed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to determine the factors that have the highest influence on energy generation and demand.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10201 - Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2023

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Information sciences

ISSN

0020-0255

e-ISSN

1872-6291

Volume of the periodical

642

Issue of the periodical within the volume

September

Country of publishing house

US - UNITED STATES

Number of pages

28

Pages from-to

"Article number: 119122"

UT code for WoS article

001008774100001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85159212089