The predictability of heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, during summer 2015a comparison of selected thermal indices
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985530%3A_____%2F19%3A00520679" target="_blank" >RIV/67985530:_____/19:00520679 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/68378289:_____/19:00501364 RIV/68378289:_____/19:00517890 RIV/86652079:_____/19:00517890 RIV/60460709:41330/19:79732
Result on the web
<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-019-01684-3" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-019-01684-3</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00484-019-01684-3" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00484-019-01684-3</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
The predictability of heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, during summer 2015a comparison of selected thermal indices
Original language description
We compared selected thermal indices in their ability to predict heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, during the extraordinary summer 2015. Relatively, novel thermal indicesUniversal Thermal Climate Index and Excess Heat Factor (EHF)were compared with more traditional ones (apparent temperature, simplified wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), and physiologically equivalent temperature). The relationships between thermal indices and all-cause relative mortality deviations from the baseline (excess mortality) were estimated by generalized additive models for the extended summer season (May-September) during 1994-2014. The resulting models were applied to predict excess mortality in 2015 based on observed meteorology, and the mortality estimates by different indices were compared. Although all predictors showed a clear association between thermal conditions and excess mortality, we found important variability in their performance. The EHF formula performed best in estimating the intensity of heat waves and magnitude of heat-impacts on excess mortality on the most extreme days. Afternoon WBGT, on the other hand, was most precise in the selection of heat-alert days during the extended summer season, mainly due to a relatively small number of false alerts compared to other predictors. Since the main purpose of heat warning systems is identification of days with an increased risk of heat-related death rather than prediction of exact magnitude of the excess mortality, WBGT seemed to be a slightly favorable predictor for such a system.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences
Result continuities
Project
<a href="/en/project/GA18-22125S" target="_blank" >GA18-22125S: Modelling weather-to-human health links</a><br>
Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2019
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
International Journal of Biometeorology
ISSN
0020-7128
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
63
Issue of the periodical within the volume
4
Country of publishing house
DE - GERMANY
Number of pages
14
Pages from-to
535-548
UT code for WoS article
000462612800010
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85061319125