Prediction of a multi-hazard chain by an integrated numerical simulation approach: the Baige landslide, Jinsha River, China

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985530%3A_____%2F20%3A00531365" target="_blank" >RIV/67985530:_____/20:00531365 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10346-019-01313-5" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10346-019-01313-5</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01313-5" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10346-019-01313-5</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Prediction of a multi-hazard chain by an integrated numerical simulation approach: the Baige landslide, Jinsha River, China

Original language description

Successive major landslides during October and November 2018 in Baige village, eastern Tibet, dammed the Jinsha River on two occasions, and the subsequent dam breaches instigated a multi-hazard chain that flooded many towns downstream. Analysis of high-resolution aerial images and field investigations unveiled three potentially unstable rock mass clusters in the source area of the landslides, suggesting possible future failures with potential for river-damming and flooding. In order to evaluate and understand the disaster chain effect linked to the potentially unstable rock mass, we systematically studied the multi-hazard scenarios through an integrated numerical modelling approach. Our model begins with an evaluation of the probability of landslide failure, including runout and river damming, and then addresses the dam breach and resultant flood-hence simulating and visualising an entire disaster chain. The model parameters were calibrated using empirical data from the two Baige landslides. Then, we predict the future cascading hazards via seven scenarios according to all possible combinations of potential rock mass failure. For each scenario, the landslide runouts, dam-breaching, and flooding are numerically simulated with full consideration of uncertainties among the model input parameters. The maximum dam breach flood extent, depth, velocity, and peak arrival time are predicted at sequential sites downstream. As a first attempt to simulate the full spectrum of a landslide-induced multi-hazard chain, our study provides insights and substantiates the value provided by multi-hazard modelling. The integrated approach described here can be applied to similar landslide-induced chains of hazards in other regions.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10505 - Geology

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2020

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Landslides

ISSN

1612-510X

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

17

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1

Country of publishing house

DE - GERMANY

Number of pages

18

Pages from-to

147-164

UT code for WoS article

000512067600011

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85075998185