Performance of Kullback-Leibler Based Expert Opinion Pooling for Unlikely Events

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985556%3A_____%2F17%3A00479432" target="_blank" >RIV/67985556:_____/17:00479432 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
—
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
—

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Performance of Kullback-Leibler Based Expert Opinion Pooling for Unlikely Events
Original language description
The aggregation of available information is of great importance in many branches of economics,nsocial sciences. Often, we can only rely on experts’ opinions, i.e. probabilities assigned to possible events. To deal with opinions in probabilistic form, we focus on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence based pools: linear, logarithmic and KL-pool (Seckarova, 2015). Since occurrence of events is subject to random influences of the real world, it is important to address events assigned lower probabilities (unlikely events). This is done by choosing pooling with a higher entropy than standard linear or logarithmic options, i.e. the KL-pool. We show how well the mentioned pools perform on real data using absolute error, KL-divergence and quadratic reward. In cases favoring events assigned higher probabilities, the KL-pool performs similarly to the linear pool and outperforms the logarithmic pool. When unlikely events occur, the KL-pool outperforms both pools, which makes it a reasonable way of pooling.n
Czech name
—
Czech description
—

Project
<a href="/en/project/GA16-09848S" target="_blank" >GA16-09848S: Rationality and Deliberation</a><br>
Continuities
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year
2017
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Article name in the collection
Proceedings of the NIPS 2016 Workshop on Imperfect Decision Makers
ISBN
—
ISSN
1938-7228
e-ISSN
—
Number of pages
10
Pages from-to
41-50
Publisher name
JMLR
Place of publication
Cambridge
Event location
Barcelona
Event date
Dec 9, 2016
Type of event by nationality
WRD - Celosvětová akce
UT code for WoS article
—

Similar results(10)