Short-term Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in the Czech Republic Based on Data from 1968-2014
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985807%3A_____%2F18%3A00489444" target="_blank" >RIV/67985807:_____/18:00489444 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.21101/cejph.a4936" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.21101/cejph.a4936</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.21101/cejph.a4936" target="_blank" >10.21101/cejph.a4936</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Short-term Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in the Czech Republic Based on Data from 1968-2014
Original language description
OBJECTIVES: The aim was to explore the patterns of the coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates over the past almost 50 years (1968-2014) in the Czech Republic, and to predict the mortality rates in 2015-2019. METHODS: The number of deaths from CHD and the population size were stratified by sex and age. The mortality rates were age-standardized to European population. Their values in 2015-2019 were estimated using the joinpoint log-linear regression, local log-linear regression and negative binomial log-linear regression, separately for males and females. RESULTS: A positive change in the trend of the age-standardized mortality rates from CHD was detected after the collapse of communism in 1989. In 1991-2000, the mortality trend was sharply downward, with an annual percent change of -5.8 % for males and -5.2 % for females. In 2000-2014, the decreasing trend was not so sharp (-1.3 % for males and -0.7% for females), yet it should continue in 2015-2019. The crude mortality rates for females are slightly higher than those for males since 2007, however, they are increasing for both sexes. The mortality rates are rising mainly in the age group of 85+ years (in 2014, 25.4% of CHD deaths of males and 54.4% of females occurred at the age of 85+ years). CONCLUSIONS: The age-standardized mortality rates are predicted to decrease in 2015-2019, but the crude mortality rates should increase due to increase in average life expectancy. The burden of deaths is moving to the age group of 85 years and older, mainly in females. A total of 26,039 CHD deaths were registered in the Czech Republic in 2014, and 29,653 are predicted for 2019, if the current trends continue.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10102 - Applied mathematics
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2018
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Central European Journal of Public Health
ISSN
1210-7778
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
26
Issue of the periodical within the volume
1
Country of publishing house
CZ - CZECH REPUBLIC
Number of pages
6
Pages from-to
10-15
UT code for WoS article
000432850200002
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85046746944