Ecological and methodological drivers of non-stationarity in tree growth response to climate

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985874%3A_____%2F23%3A00563183" target="_blank" >RIV/67985874:_____/23:00563183 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/00216208:11310/23:10449351 RIV/60460709:41320/23:96962

Result on the web

<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.16470" target="_blank" >https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.16470</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16470" target="_blank" >10.1111/gcb.16470</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Ecological and methodological drivers of non-stationarity in tree growth response to climate

Original language description

Radial tree growth is sensitive to environmental conditions, making observed growth increments an important indicator of climate change effects on forest growth. However, unprecedented climate variability could lead to non-stationarity, that is, a decoupling of tree growth responses from climate over time, potentially inducing bi-ases in climate reconstructions and forest growth projections. Little is known about whether and to what extent environmental conditions, species, and model type and resolution affect the occurrence and magnitude of non-stationarity. To systematically assess potential drivers of non-stationarity, we compiled tree- ring width chronolo-gies of two conifer species, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, distributed across cold, dry, and mixed climates. We analyzed 147 sites across the Europe including the dis-tribution margins of these species as well as moderate sites. We calibrated four nu-merical models (linear vs. non- linear, daily vs. monthly resolution) to simulate growth chronologies based on temperature and soil moisture data. Climate–growth models were tested in independent verification periods to quantify their non-stationarity, which was assessed based on bootstrapped transfer function stability tests. The de-gree of non-stationarity varied between species, site climatic conditions, and models. Chronologies of P. sylvestris showed stronger non-stationarity compared with Picea abies stands with a high degree of stationarity. Sites with mixed climatic signals were most affected by non-stationarity compared with sites sampled at cold and dry spe-cies distribution margins. Moreover, linear models with daily resolution exhibited greater non-stationarity compared with monthly- resolved non- linear models. We conclude that non-stationarity in climate–growth responses is a multifactorial phe-nomenon driven by the interaction of site climatic conditions, tree species, and meth-odological features of the modeling approach. Given the existence of multiple drivers and the frequent occurrence of non-stationarity, we recommend that temporal non- stationarity rather than stationarity should be considered as the baseline model of climate–growth response for temperate forests.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10501 - Hydrology

Project

<a href="/en/project/GA19-13807S" target="_blank" >GA19-13807S: Does rising CO2 concentration decrease the sensitivity of European temperate conifers to drought?</a><br>

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2023

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Global Change Biology

ISSN

1354-1013

e-ISSN

1365-2486

Volume of the periodical

29

Issue of the periodical within the volume

2

Country of publishing house

GB - UNITED KINGDOM

Number of pages

15

Pages from-to

462-476

UT code for WoS article

000870547100001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85140119318