Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985891%3A_____%2F18%3A00490910" target="_blank" >RIV/67985891:_____/18:00490910 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/86652079:_____/18:00490910 RIV/00216208:11310/18:10382130

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018" target="_blank" >10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

Original language description

Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

Czech name

—

Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10508 - Physical geography

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2018

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Cryosphere

ISSN

1994-0416

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

12

Issue of the periodical within the volume

4

Country of publishing house

DE - GERMANY

Number of pages

15

Pages from-to

1195-1209

UT code for WoS article

000429438900001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85045256182