Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985939%3A_____%2F20%3A00533344" target="_blank" >RIV/67985939:_____/20:00533344 - isvavai.cz</a>
Alternative codes found
RIV/60460709:41320/20:84729 RIV/00216208:11310/20:10422289
Result on the web
<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15199" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15199</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15199" target="_blank" >10.1111/gcb.15199</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment
Original language description
Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socioeconomic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions - transport, climate change and socio-economic change - were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a bestcase scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
J<sub>imp</sub> - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
10618 - Ecology
Result continuities
Project
Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.
Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2020
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Name of the periodical
Global Change Biology
ISSN
1354-1013
e-ISSN
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Volume of the periodical
26
Issue of the periodical within the volume
9
Country of publishing house
GB - UNITED KINGDOM
Number of pages
14
Pages from-to
4880-4893
UT code for WoS article
000548118200001
EID of the result in the Scopus database
2-s2.0-85087841318