Global pattern of forest disturbances and its shift under climate change

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985939%3A_____%2F24%3A00600854" target="_blank" >RIV/67985939:_____/24:00600854 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/60460709:41320/24:100557 RIV/60076658:12310/24:43908322

Result on the web

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170117" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170117</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170117" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170117</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Global pattern of forest disturbances and its shift under climate change

Original language description

Forests are continuously altered by disturbances. Yet, knowledge of global pattern of forest disturbance agents, its drivers, and shifts under changing climate remain scarce. Here we present a meta-analysis of current and projected (+2 degrees and + 4 degrees C) distribution of forest disturbance agents causing immediate tree mortality (i.e., fire, pest outbreak, hydro-geomorphic, and wind) at country, continental, biome, and global scales. The model including combination of climatic (precipitation of driest quarter, actual evapotranspiration, and minimum temperature), geographical (distance to coast and topography complexity), and forest characteristics (tree density) performs better than any other model in explaining the distribution of disturbance agents (R-2 = 0.74). We provide global maps (0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees) of current and potential future distribution of forest disturbance agents. Globally, the most frequent disturbance agent was fire (46.09 %), followed by pest outbreak (23.27 %), hydro-geomorphic disturbances (18.97 %), and wind (11.67 %). Our projections indicate spatially contrasting shifts in disturbance agents, with fire and wind risk increase between similar to 50 degrees S and similar to 40 degrees N under warming climate. In particular, the substantial increase in fire risk, exceeding 31 % in the most affected areas, is projected over Mediterranean, the western and southeast USA, African, Oceanian, and South American forests. On the other hand, pest outbreak and hydro-geomorphic disturbances are projected to increase in more southern (> similar to 50 degrees S) and northern (> similar to 40 degrees N) latitudes. Our findings are critical for understanding ongoing changes and developing mitigation strategies to maintain the ecological integrity and ecosystem services under shifts in forest disturbances. We suggest that projected shifts in the global distribution of forest disturbance agents needs to be considered to future models of vegetation or carbon sink dynamics under projected climate change.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10618 - Ecology

Project

<a href="/en/project/GA23-05272S" target="_blank" >GA23-05272S: Tropical cyclone activity, drivers, and impact on forest ecosystems at different spatial and temporal scales</a><br>

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2024

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Science of the Total Environment

ISSN

0048-9697

e-ISSN

1879-1026

Volume of the periodical

915

Issue of the periodical within the volume

MAR 10

Country of publishing house

NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

Number of pages

9

Pages from-to

170117

UT code for WoS article

001176130600001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85183773456