Modeling Rwanda

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985998%3A_____%2F11%3A00426534" target="_blank" >RIV/67985998:_____/11:00426534 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Modeling Rwanda

Original language description

The report consists of four chapters. Chapter 1 assesses the historical performance of forecasts for Rwanda. Historical forecasts since January 2010 are compared with the actual data as well as with projections of other institutions. Chapter 2 presents the structural macroeconomic model, its changes compared to the December 2009 version, and its properties captured by impulse-response functions and by variance decompositions of model?s variables in terms of the model shocks. Important is the part on themodel-consistent interpretation of the recent economic Rwanda history. The section describing Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the near-term forecasting concludes. Chapter 3 evaluates how the models perform empirically. On the contrary to Chapter 1, the forecasting power is assessed both in the sample as well as by using an out-of-thesample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison. The last chapter g

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

O - Miscellaneous

CEP classification

AH - Economics

OECD FORD branch

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Project

<a href="/en/project/LF11018" target="_blank" >LF11018: Global Forecasting Portal for Developing Countries</a><br>

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2011

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů