The Antonine Plague. Evaluation of its impact through epidemiological modelling
The result's identifiers
Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68081758%3A_____%2F22%3A00568436" target="_blank" >RIV/68081758:_____/22:00568436 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/44160/chapter-abstract/372349918?redirectedFrom=fulltext" target="_blank" >https://academic.oup.com/book/44160/chapter-abstract/372349918?redirectedFrom=fulltext</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192857828.003.0003" target="_blank" >10.1093/oso/9780192857828.003.0003</a>
Alternative languages
Result language
angličtina
Original language name
The Antonine Plague. Evaluation of its impact through epidemiological modelling
Original language description
Since the beginning of discussions about the ‘third-century crisis’, the famous epidemic called the Antonine Plague has been often argued to be a key causal factor. During the crisis period, different segments and regions of the Roman world underwent various forms of turmoil (social unrest and uprising, economic problems, political instability etc.) or external incursions (warfare, barbarian raids). Our current scientific knowledge of the period suggests considerable ranges of the estimated death toll of the epidemic. The main intention of this paper is to test the plausibility of these different estimated impacts, on the basis of emulative digital modelling and simulation. A geographically explicit context, with a cellular framework, represents a workspace for spatio-temporal quantitative simulations to test various scenarios. Model input data include a reconstructed distribution of population density, infrastructure intensity, historical clinical data on the disease, and others. The vital part of simulation dynamics is defined through epidemiology mathematics (a compartment model with dynamics driven by differential equations). Coping with a large array of input variables, which are known and reconstructable only to a limited extent, has constrained our ability to test scenarios for assessing possible quantitative and spatial aspects of the epidemic impact within the demographic structures of the Roman Empire. Nevertheless, on basis of the simulation results it was possible to put some of existing estimates into new perspective regarding their general plausibility.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Classification
Type
C - Chapter in a specialist book
CEP classification
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OECD FORD branch
60102 - Archaeology
Result continuities
Project
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Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Others
Publication year
2022
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Data specific for result type
Book/collection name
Simulating Roman economies. Theories, methods, and computational models
ISBN
978-0-19-285782-8
Number of pages of the result
40
Pages from-to
69-108
Number of pages of the book
332
Publisher name
Oxford University Press
Place of publication
Oxford
UT code for WoS chapter
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