Uncertainty in the area-related QPF for heavy convective precipitation

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F09%3A00327270" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/09:00327270 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

—

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

—

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Uncertainty in the area-related QPF for heavy convective precipitation

Original language description

We studied five convective events producing heavy local rainfall with the help of the numerical weather prediction model LM COSMO. The model was run with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km. We created an ensemble of 13 forecasts by modifying initial and boundary conditions. Uncertainties in the area-related quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) were evaluated with the help of a fraction skill score that can quantify the ensemble spread and skill. The spread represents the differences between the control forecast and the forecasts provided by each ensemble member, and the skill evaluates the difference between the precipitation forecast and radar-based rainfall. Analyses show how the forecast lead time and spatial scale influence the spread and skillvalues. Despite the different areal structures of precipitation fields, the relationships between spread and skill appear to be similar.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_x - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)

CEP classification

DG - Atmospheric sciences, meteorology

OECD FORD branch

—

Project

Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.

Continuities

Z - Vyzkumny zamer (s odkazem do CEZ)

Publication year

2009

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Atmospheric Research

ISSN

0169-8095

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

93

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1-3

Country of publishing house

NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

Number of pages

9

Pages from-to

—

UT code for WoS article

000267743900022

EID of the result in the Scopus database

—