Overly persistent circulation in climate models contributes to overestimated frequency and duration of heat waves and cold spells

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F16%3A00446589" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/16:00446589 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/60460709:41330/16:70947

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2733-8" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2733-8</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2733-8" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00382-015-2733-8</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Overly persistent circulation in climate models contributes to overestimated frequency and duration of heat waves and cold spells

Original language description

The study examines links of summer heat waves and winter cold spells in Central Europe to atmospheric circulation and specifically its persistence in an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs). We analyse 13 RCMs driven by the ERA-40 reanalysis and compare them against observations over reference period 1971–2000. Using objective classification of circulation types and an efficiency coefficient with a block resampling test, we identify circulation types significantly conducive to heat waves and cold spells. We show that the RCMs have a stronger tendency to group together days with very high or low temperature and tend to simulate too many heat waves and cold spells, especially those lasting 5 days and more. Circulation types conducive to heat waves in summer are characterized by anticyclonic, southerly and easterly flow, with increasing importance of warm advection during heat waves. Winter cold spells are typically associated with easterly and anticyclonic flow, and the onset of cold spells tends to be linked to northerly and cyclonic flow with cold advection. The RCMs are generally able to reproduce the links between circulation and heat waves or cold spells, including the radiation-to-advection effect for heat waves and the opposite advection-to-radiation effect for cold spells. They capture relatively well also changes of mean temperature anomalies during sequences of given circulation types, namely the tendency towards temperature increase (decrease) during those types conducive to heat waves (cold spells).

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_x - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)

CEP classification

DG - Atmospheric sciences, meteorology

OECD FORD branch

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Project

Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2016

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Climate Dynamics

ISSN

0930-7575

e-ISSN

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Volume of the periodical

46

Issue of the periodical within the volume

9

Country of publishing house

US - UNITED STATES

Number of pages

16

Pages from-to

2805-2820

UT code for WoS article

000374970200008

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-84937711009