Nowcasting of hailstorms simulated by the NWP model COSMO for the area of the Czech Republic

Result code in IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F16%3A00454829" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/16:00454829 - isvavai.cz</a>
Result on the web
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.12.006" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.12.006</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.12.006" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.12.006</a>

Result language
angličtina
Original language name
Nowcasting of hailstorms simulated by the NWP model COSMO for the area of the Czech Republic
Original language description
This study deals with the evaluation of the possibility of using the current numerical models for nowcasting of large hail (diameter 2.5 cm). Evaluation is focused on deterministic forecast with the lead times up to 2 h. As in our previous work (Sokol et al., 2014) the COSMO NWP model with a two moment cloud microphysics explicitly considering hail was applied. The model is run at a horizontal resolution of 1.1 km and with the assimilation of radar reflectivity. The model forecasts are evaluated for five events with large hail determined by direct observations and derived using a recognition algorithm based on radar and sounding data. The accuracy of model forecasts was evaluated subjectively by eye, by Fractions Skill Score and by bias. In addition distances between locations of forecasted and observed hail were analyzed and evaluated. Basic results of this study are that (i) forecasts longer than 90 min are problematic because of large errors and significant underestimation of forecasted hail, (ii) when the model forecasts large hail then there is a 50% chance that large hail will be observed within approximately 30 km.
Czech name
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Czech description
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Type
J<sub>x</sub> - Unclassified - Peer-reviewed scientific article (Jimp, Jsc and Jost)
CEP classification
DG - Atmospheric sciences, meteorology
OECD FORD branch
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Project
Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.
Continuities
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year
2016
Confidentiality
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

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