Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the eliophysics System Observatory

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F17%3A00479390" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/17:00479390 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001614" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001614</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001614" target="_blank" >10.1002/2017SW001614</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the eliophysics System Observatory

Original language description

We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%–35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first-order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.

Czech name

—

Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10305 - Fluids and plasma physics (including surface physics)

Project

<a href="/en/project/GJ17-06818Y" target="_blank" >GJ17-06818Y: Heliospheric remote sensing and in situ observations applicable to space weather forecasting</a><br>

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2017

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Space Weather

ISSN

1542-7390

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

15

Issue of the periodical within the volume

7

Country of publishing house

US - UNITED STATES

Number of pages

16

Pages from-to

955-970

UT code for WoS article

000407927800009

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85026490376