Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F18%3A00469344" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/18:00469344 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/86652079:_____/18:00468651 RIV/60460709:41330/18:77151 RIV/00216208:11310/18:10392705

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-2031-3" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-2031-3</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-2031-3" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00704-016-2031-3</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties

Original language description

The study examines climate change scenarios of Central European heat waves with a focus on related uncertainties in a large ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX and ENSEMBLES projects. Historical runs (1970–1999) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are evaluated against the E-OBS gridded data set in the first step. Although the RCMs are found to reproduce the frequency of heat waves quite well, those RCMs with the coarser grid (25 and 50 km) considerably overestimate the frequency of severe heat waves. This deficiency is improved in higher-resolution (12.5 km) EURO-CORDEX RCMs. In the near future (2020–2049), heat waves are projected to be nearly twice as frequent in comparison to the modelled historical period, and the increase is even larger for severe heat waves. Uncertainty originates mainly from the selection of RCMs and GCMs because the increase is similar for all concentration scenarios. For the late twenty-first century (2070–2099), a substantial increase in heat wave frequencies is projected, the magnitude of which depends mainly upon concentration scenario. Three to four heat waves per summer are projected in this period (compared to less than one in the recent climate), and severe heat waves are likely to become a regular phenomenon. This increment is primarily driven by a positive shift of temperature distribution, but changes in its scale and enhanced temporal autocorrelation of temperature also contribute to the projected increase in heat wave frequencies.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Project

Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2018

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

ISSN

0177-798X

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

131

Issue of the periodical within the volume

3-4

Country of publishing house

AT - AUSTRIA

Number of pages

12

Pages from-to

1043-1054

UT code for WoS article

000423574800013

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85008470415