Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F18%3A00473912" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/18:00473912 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/60460709:41330/18:77150 RIV/00020711:_____/18:00004626 RIV/46747885:24510/18:00009661

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2102-0" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2102-0</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2102-0" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00704-017-2102-0</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

Original language description

The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May–September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Project

Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.

Continuities

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Publication year

2018

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

ISSN

0177-798X

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

132

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1-2

Country of publishing house

AT - AUSTRIA

Number of pages

13

Pages from-to

515-527

UT code for WoS article

000428241200036

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85016400170