Nowcasting of the probability of accumulated precipitation based on the radar echo extrapolation

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F19%3A00493654" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/19:00493654 - isvavai.cz</a>

Result on the web

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.09.019" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.09.019</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.09.019" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.09.019</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Nowcasting of the probability of accumulated precipitation based on the radar echo extrapolation

Original language description

The study presents a new method nowcasting precipitation called the Ensemble Tree Method (ETM), which gives probability forecast of accumulated precipitation based on the extrapolation of radar reflectivity. ETM combines a tree model with a Bootstrap technique. It forecasts the probability that the hourly accumulated precipitation exceeds a given threshold for cells of 3 by 3 km size. nETM was tested using radar reflectivity data from July 2012 in a domain of 489 km by 291 km covering the Czech Republic (Central Europe). While forecasting, we considered a lead time of up to 180 min having a time step of 30 min and four precipitation thresholds (0.1, 1.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm). ETM provided us forecasts of the probability of exceeding an hourly precipitation threshold from 0 to 60 min, 30 to 90 min, …, and 120 to 180 min. The performance of ETM was assessed using a skill score derived from the mean-square-error, and was compared with the performance of forecasts based on a logistic regression that was used as reference forecast. We demonstrated that the prediction of ETM is better than that of the reference forecast. The main advantage of ETM is that the ETM reflects the uncertainty of forecast better as compared to the overconfident reference forecasts, which is particularly true for the higher precipitation thresholds. Thus, despite low predicted probabilities, the forecasts given by ETM seem more realistic.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Project

—

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2019

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Atmospheric Research

ISSN

0169-8095

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

216

Issue of the periodical within the volume

1 February

Country of publishing house

NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

Number of pages

10

Pages from-to

1-10

UT code for WoS article

000452344700001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85053783019