Possible Increase of Vegetation Exposure to Spring Frost under Climate Change in Switzerland

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F20%3A00523874" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/20:00523874 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/86652079:_____/20:00525569

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/4/391/htm" target="_blank" >https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/4/391/htm</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040391" target="_blank" >10.3390/atmos11040391</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Possible Increase of Vegetation Exposure to Spring Frost under Climate Change in Switzerland

Original language description

We assessed future changes in spring frost risk for the Aare river catchment that comprises the Swiss Plateau, the most important agricultural region of Switzerland. An ensemble of 15 bias-corrected regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EXAR data set forced by the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration pathways were analysed for two future periods. Correlating actual meteorological observations and Swiss phenological spring index, we proposed and tested an RCM-compatible methodology (based on temperature data only) for estimating a start of spring and severity of frost events. In the historical climate, a significant advancement in start of spring was observed and frost events were more frequent in those years in which spring started sooner. In 2021–2050, spring is projected to start eight (twelve) days earlier, considering the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenario. Substantial changes were simulated for the 2070–2099 period under RCP 8.5, when the total severity of frost events was projected to be increased by a factor of 2.1 compared to the historical climate. The study revealed the possible future increase of vegetation exposure to spring frost in Switzerland and that this phenomenon is noticeable even in the near future under the ‘low concentration’ RCP 4.5 scenario.

Czech name

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Czech description

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Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

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OECD FORD branch

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Project

Result was created during the realization of more than one project. More information in the Projects tab.

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2020

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Atmosphere

ISSN

2073-4433

e-ISSN

—

Volume of the periodical

11

Issue of the periodical within the volume

4

Country of publishing house

CH - SWITZERLAND

Number of pages

16

Pages from-to

391

UT code for WoS article

000539492200078

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85084532484