Impact of satellite-derived cloud cover on road weather forecasts

Result code in IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F23%3A00573220" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/23:00573220 - isvavai.cz</a>

Alternative codes found

RIV/00020699:_____/23:N0000032

Result on the web

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169809523002843" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169809523002843</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106887" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106887</a>

Result language

angličtina

Original language name

Impact of satellite-derived cloud cover on road weather forecasts

Original language description

This paper presents an innovative approach to road surface temperature (RST) forecasting by using satellite-derived cloud cover information as inputs for the FOrecast of Road TEmperature and condition (FORTE) road weather model (RWM). FORTE is a 1D physical based model used for solving energy balance and heat conduction equations. The new method uses the extrapolated cloud mask product calculated from Meteosat Second Generation satellite measurements to derive the forecasted cloud cover, which is then entered into the RWM. This method is based on the assumption that cloud cover extrapolated for the very near future (i.e., 1–3 h) from current conditions is able to provide more accurate input data (as compared to the currently used numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecast) that can be used for calculating the radiation fluxes in the RWM. The resulting RSTs were verified over a 2-month period from December 2021 to January 2022 at road weather stations located on 4 selected Czech motorways. The obtained results showed that the innovated model run using satellite-derived cloud cover generated RSTs closer to the observed values, in contrast to the original model run, whose predictions have larger errors. The greatest improvement is evident during the day, when solar radiation dominates, and especially in the 2nd and 3rd forecasted hours, when extrapolated cloud cover helps to reduce the morning overestimation and afternoon underestimation of RSTs. If the NWP model incorrectly predicts clouds over the road surface on cloudless nights, the emitted downwards radiation from the clouds towards the Earth's surface is increased in the RWM, which leads to an overestimation of the RSTs. On the other hand, incorrectly predicting clear skies leads to a negative radiation balance in the RWM, which typically results in RSTs that are lower than the observations.

Czech name

—

Czech description

—

Type

J_imp - Article in a specialist periodical, which is included in the Web of Science database

CEP classification

—

OECD FORD branch

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Project

<a href="/en/project/CK01000048" target="_blank" >CK01000048: Forecasting system of road surface condition and temperature of the Czech highways</a><br>

Continuities

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Publication year

2023

Confidentiality

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Name of the periodical

Atmospheric Research

ISSN

0169-8095

e-ISSN

1873-2895

Volume of the periodical

292

Issue of the periodical within the volume

September 1

Country of publishing house

NL - THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS

Number of pages

12

Pages from-to

106887

UT code for WoS article

001033093600001

EID of the result in the Scopus database

2-s2.0-85162965273